General First quarter of 2022 saw major geopolitical event, with the Russian military invading the country of Ukraine. Like many have said, it is a tragedy. I continue to watch the developments there with my heart going out to the Ukrainian people. As Russia invaded Ukraine and sanctions have been imposed on the Russian government,… Continue reading Q1 2022
Benchmarks I added 3 benchmarks to the track record above. At my age, late 20s, the most popular asset to own is a house/flat. And not only that, the most popular way to own this asset is to leverage up. Given the merit of this asset, being its popularity, I have added them to the… Continue reading FY2021
After some years of investing, upon reflection, I thought I would summarise below the criteria for an investment idea. Must be within my circle of understanding “Know what you don’t know” – Unknown I must continuously work to define/refine my circle of understanding. An investment idea that falls inside the circle should be prioritised than… Continue reading Investment criteria
General During the quarter, the yield curve continues to remain at around 1.48%, or an earning ratio of 67x. The yield curve remains very low when compared to its history. This is shown below. Source: https://www.multpl.com/10-year-treasury-rate In fact, it is the second lowest point since 1870, or more than 150 years ago. In real terms,… Continue reading Q3 2021
General Q2 2021 has been relatively quiet. I continue to put capital to work into “old” ideas. These are the companies that have already been in the portfolio for quite some time. Government bond yield, a key driver of valuation, continues to be low. Shortly after the end of Q2, the 10-year Treasury yield dived… Continue reading Q2 2021
General market “The biggest risk of all is the possibility of rising interest rates. The downward trend in rates is over (if we can believe the Fed’s assurance that it won’t take nominal rates into negative territory). Thus, while interest rates can rise from here, they can’t decline. This creates a negatively asymmetrical proposition. Can… Continue reading Q1 2021
General From a health perspective, we are happy with the progress of widely distributed testing, enforced social distancing, mass mask wearing and the latest, strong vaccine pipeline with some major ones currently being used to inoculate front line workers and people who are in the key risked category. For those who are interested in a… Continue reading FY2020
Performance Since the depth of the Covid-19 induced crisis, the market has increased by 50%. The bullish market was driven by both fiscal and monetary stimulus from the US government and US central bank. What we learned from observing the period is that most of the bullishness might have been more driven by the fiscal… Continue reading Q3 2020
The comeback As noted in the Q1-2020 blog post, we would have bought more stocks even on a monthly basis if our base case had happened. Instead the worst case happened. The worst case is characterized by the c.40% increase in the S&P 500 from its trough of 2237 at the end of March 2020.… Continue reading Q2 2020
One idea at a time 