After some years of investing, upon reflection, I thought I would summarise below the criteria for an investment idea. Must be within my circle of understanding “Know what you don’t know” – Unknown I must continuously work to define/refine my circle of understanding. An investment idea that falls inside the circle should be prioritised than… Continue reading Investment criteria
General During the quarter, the yield curve continues to remain at around 1.48%, or an earning ratio of 67x. The yield curve remains very low when compared to its history. This is shown below. Source: https://www.multpl.com/10-year-treasury-rate In fact, it is the second lowest point since 1870, or more than 150 years ago. In real terms,… Continue reading Q3 2021
General Q2 2021 has been relatively quiet. I continue to put capital to work into “old” ideas. These are the companies that have already been in the portfolio for quite some time. Government bond yield, a key driver of valuation, continues to be low. Shortly after the end of Q2, the 10-year Treasury yield dived… Continue reading Q2 2021
General market “The biggest risk of all is the possibility of rising interest rates. The downward trend in rates is over (if we can believe the Fed’s assurance that it won’t take nominal rates into negative territory). Thus, while interest rates can rise from here, they can’t decline. This creates a negatively asymmetrical proposition. Can… Continue reading Q1 2021
General From a health perspective, we are happy with the progress of widely distributed testing, enforced social distancing, mass mask wearing and the latest, strong vaccine pipeline with some major ones currently being used to inoculate front line workers and people who are in the key risked category. For those who are interested in a… Continue reading FY2020
Performance Since the depth of the Covid-19 induced crisis, the market has increased by 50%. The bullish market was driven by both fiscal and monetary stimulus from the US government and US central bank. What we learned from observing the period is that most of the bullishness might have been more driven by the fiscal… Continue reading Q3 2020
The comeback As noted in the Q1-2020 blog post, we would have bought more stocks even on a monthly basis if our base case had happened. Instead the worst case happened. The worst case is characterized by the c.40% increase in the S&P 500 from its trough of 2237 at the end of March 2020.… Continue reading Q2 2020
Portfolio As mentioned in previous quarters, I continue to trek along and to slowly close the underperforming gap. The record started at the same time I started my first full time job and had real money to save. I started with a combination of passive and active funds, then moved to owning individual stocks in… Continue reading Q1 2020
The portfolio increased 22.6% for the year, compared to 24.3%, 20.7%, and 21.3% of the S&P 500, MSCI ACWI and FTSE All World total return (GBP) indices respectively. (“The indices”). Since inception, the portfolio has compounded at a 13.0% rate vs 16.2%, 13.8% and 15% of the indices. From 28 Feb 2018 (when I started… Continue reading 2019 roundup
“For most people, the first $100k is a long slog” – Charlie Munger Portfolio Saving Portfolio The portfolio YTD has returned 20.5% vs 21% achieved by the S&P 500 (GBP). The portfolio saw quite a bit of activities in q2 and 3 as I firm up my conviction on several companies. Private equity I bought… Continue reading 2019 update
One idea at a time 